Mehta Partners Outlook 2010 Global Pharmaceutical & Biotechnology

【报告名称】：Mehta Partners Outlook 2010 Global Pharmaceutical & Biotechnology
【完成日期】：2010年2月
【报告页码】：376页
【交付方式】：EMAIL电子版
【报告价格】：印刷版9500美元   电子版9500美元   印刷+电子 9500美元
  
Mehta Partners Outlook 2010
Global Pharmaceutica & Biotechnology 
  
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 
Key findings  
  
Table 1: Broad Indices vs. Healthcare Indices 
Major Assumptions of last year that went well 
Table 2: Top picks for 2010 
Table 3:Growth profitability and valuation snapshot thru 2012 
Brief macro theses on Japan, Global, India, Rising Stars and Mature Biotech 
Table 4:Report card of our 2009 recommendation 
Table 5:R&D Outlook for 2010 
Table 6:Licensing deals 2009 
  
Chapter 1 Japanese pharma macro analysis 
Impact of NHI price cuts 
Table 1:Key products under higher price cut threat 
Table 2:Impact of price cuts on long listed products – scenarios 
Table 3:Key success factors for innovator and generic segment 
Chart 1:Historical NHI price cuts vs. “Yakka Sa” 
Outlook for innovator companies 
Table 4:Dependence on long listed products 
Table 5:Margin comparison – Japanese pharma vs. all other  
Table 6:Dependence of companies on products marketed only in Japan 
Table 7:Key products available in Japan only 
Table 8:Top 20 products sold in Japan 
Table 9:Japan pharma’s performance vs. US / EU pharma 
Table 10:Global Japan pharma’s performance vs. domestic companies 
Table 11:Japanese global companies’ overseas sales 
Table 12:Acquisition done by Japanese pharma 
Sum of parts valuation methodology  
Table 13:Sum of parts relative valuation 
Outlook for generic companies 
Table 14:The new layers of reforms 
Chart 2:Japan generic market segments 
Chart 3:Positioining of generic companies 
Table 15:Generics market model 
Company Recommendations – Japan Top Picks  
Astellas: Outperform 
Shionogi: Outperform 
Takeda: Outperform 
Towa: Outperform 
Other Company Recommendations  
Chugai: Market Perform 
Daiichi Sankyo: Not Rated 
Daiinipon Sumitomo: Market Perform 
Eisai: Not Rated 
Kyorin: Market Perform 
Kyowa Hakko Kirin: Market Perform 
Mitsubishi Tanabe: Positive Investment Alert 
Nippon Chemiphar: Market Perform 
Sawai: Market Perform 
Japan Pharma Industry Tables 
Table 15:Share buyback by major Japanese cos.  
  
Chapter 2 GLOBAL PHARMA macro analysis 
Brief discussion on top picks  
Investment Drivers  
Table 1:Biopharma valuations bottoming 
Assessment of near term investment drivers  
Table 2:Near term valuation matrix 
Table 3:Near term risk profile  
Table 4:Near term drivers 
Assessment of long term investment drivers  
Table 5:Long term risk 
Table 6:Cost savings potential 
Table 7:Sustainability of cash flows – growth beyond 2014 
R&D Outlook 
Table 8:NME / BLA approvals for global pharma 
Table 9:R&D externalization – a better bet for pharma 
Table 10:What to expect from 2010: major new approvals 
Important therapy classes 
Table 11:Important milestones in diabetes in 2010 
Table 12:Important milestones in stroke prevention / Atrial fibriliation in 2010 
Table 13:Important milestones in VTE prevention and ACS in 2010 
Table 14:Important milestones Multiple Sclerosis in 2010 
Table 15:Important milestones in CML in 2010 
Healthcare reforms and its impact 
Table 16: Share of part d enrollees who reached doughnut hole and catastrophic coverage 
Table 17: Changes in drug use by part d enrollees after reaching the coverage gap in 2007 
Pricing pressure and patent exposure 
Chart 1:How long will brand name pricing keep rising 
Table 18:Patent exposure of global pharma 
Table 19:Top five therapeutic class patent exposure  
Assessment of Emerging markets opportunities 
Table 20:Size of emerging and developed markets 
Chart 2:Emerging markets opportunity still untapped 
Annexure 1: Key R&D success expected through 2012 
Company Recommendations – Top Picks  
Eli Lilly: Outperform 
Novartis: Outperform 
Roche: Outperform 
Other Company Recommendations  
AstraZeneca: Underperform 
Bristol Myers: Underperform 
GSK: Market Perform 
Merck: Market Perform 
Novo Nordisk: Outperform 
Pfizer: Underperform 
Sanofi Aventis: Market Perform 
Global Pharma Industry Tables 
Table 21: First cycle approval rate for overall study cohort by year 
Table 22: Business and valuation numbers at a glance 
Table 23: Approval rate versus novelty of mechanism & disease nature 
Table 24: PHIII pipeline strength versus generic exposure 
Table 25: Exposure to para iv challenges 
Table 26: Expected drug clinical milestones 
Table 27: It pays to be contrarian 
  
Chapter 3 RISING STARS (unprofitable innovators) macro analysis 
Brief discussion on top picks   
CY09 – Performance of Rising Stars 
Table 1:No signs of buckling down 
R&D outlook for Rising Stars 
Table 2:Justifying R&D investment – upside in 2010 
Table 3:R&D sweet spot – Notable positive R&D success in 2009 
Chart 1:Drug approvals in US – 2007 to 2009 
Table 4:Late phase un-partnered compounds – potential movers of 2010 
Table 5:Licensing deals in 2009 
Company Recommendations 
Ablynx: Outperform 
Acorda: Outperform 
Amag: Outperform 
Basilea: Outperform 
Incyte: Outperform 
Rigel: Outperform 
Trubion pharma: Outperform 
Micromet: Market Perform 
NicOx: Market Perform 
Protalix: Market Perform 
Xoma: Market Perform 
Rising Stars Industry Tables 
Table 6:Expected drug clinical milestones 
Table 7:NPV Matrix 
  
Chapter 4 INDIAN PHARMA macro analysis 
Investment Conclusions – Downgrade to Market Perform 
CY09 Performance  
Major market – Hits and Misses  
Chart 1:Growth of Indian Pharma market in value, volume and new products 
Table 1:Major regulated markets generic growth 
Table 2:Pricing pressures take different shape in various countries 
Table 3:Generics growth in Emerging Markets 
Table 4:CY09 Recommendations – Hits and Misses  
CY10 Investment drivers  
Table 5:Indian pharma valuation performance 
Table 6:US patent expiries in CY09 to CY11 
Table 7:Products expected to genericize during 2010 in US 
Table 8:Products expected to genericize during 2011 in US 
Table 9:Products expected to genericize anytime in US 
Table 10:Presence of Indian companies in major Para IVs in US 
CY10 Investment criteria 
Criteria based on geographic focus, forex exposure, technology focus, M&A possibilities and valuation 
Table 11:Global cos. look at Indian generics for efficient manufacturing 
Top and Bottom picks from Indian pharma 
Company Recommendations – Top Picks 
Sun Pharma: Outperform 
Ipca: Outperform 
Wockhardt: Outperform 
Other Company Recommendations  
Aurobindo: Market Perform 
Biocon: Underperform 
Cadila: Outperform 
Cipla: Underperform 
Dishman: Underperform 
Dr Reddy’s: Market Perform 
Lupin: Underperform 
Piramal Healthcare: Market Perform 
Ranbaxy: Not Rated 
Indian Pharma Industry Tables 
Table 12:Dupont analysis 
Table 13:Shareholding pattern 
Table 14:Companies increasing sales force 
Table 15:NCE Pipeline of Indian companies 
  
Chapter 5 Mature biotech macro analysis 
Top Picks for 2010 
Criteria for stock recommendation 
Table 1A:Valuation snapshot – blend of intangible and hardcore  
Table 1B:Valuation multiple based on projection thru 2012 
Table 2:actual performance 2009, expected performance 2010 
Table 3:Decent cash reserve to fund inorganic growth 
Outlook of Mature Biotechs  
Table 4:Strategic partnership or acquisition – only way for improvement 
Table 5:Key milestones during 2010 
Table 6A:Mature biotech born from 1986 to 2009 – their current status 
Table 6B:Probable candidates that will become Mature Biotechs 
Table 7:Generic challenges for mature biotechs 
Company Recommendations – Top Picks 
Amgen: Outperform 
Celgene: Outperform 
Other Company Recommendations  
Biogen Idec: Market Perform 
Biomarin: Market Perform 
Genzyme: Market Perform 
Gilead: Outperform 
Onyx: Outperform 
Mature Biotech Industry Tables 
Table 8:Expected drug clinical milestones 
Table 9:Maturer Biotech – selected companies M&A activities 
Table 10:Valuation snapshot 
Table 11:Potential pipeline through 2015 
  
Chapter 6 MACRO TABLES OF WORLDWIDE PHARMA INDUSTRY 
Table 1:Pharma investment still defensive 
Table 2:Biopharma segment shares 
Table 3:Top 30 historical market value companies: 2000 - Present 
Table 4:Market share correlates well with market value 
Table 5:Pharma sales: Past, Present and Future 
Table 6:The many faces of profitability – 2010 income statement matrix 
  
  
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